MLB Sunday

Taking the Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-105). This chance to make the playoffs is in the Minnesota Twins hands now after the Chicago Whitesox helped them get to this point today by beating the Detroit Tigers yesterday. Now the Tigers and Twins are tied on top of the Central Dvision and if both win today they go to a single game tiebreaker. But if one team loses, the other heads to the American League Playoffs. Detroit starts an hour earlier than the Twins so Minnesota will get to see how things are playing out but the real edge today is in favor of the Twins simply because of their opponent and who is pitching. While Detroit has to face a strong lefthander in John Danks, the Twins get the good fortune of facing Luke Hocehvar.

Not that they should be cocky about this, nor will they be,but Minnesota facing this guy on the road is a good thing. Hochevar has a 7.53 ERA and only a 3-7 record away from Kansas City. At home he is decent, on the road is another story. In 4 of his last 5 starts on the road, his pitching line is disturbing. He has allowed 26 runs and 37 hits in only 20 innings pitched. He just doesn't get hit, he gets bombed on the road, and Minnesota will be showing up today for sure.

This isn't about Minnesota's pitcher Carl Pavano pitching on 3 days rest, as the leash will be short if he gets into trouble, it's about Minnesota making the most of their opportunity and gettting to this kid Hocehvar and then to a KC bullpen which is not as good as Minnesota's. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 as they fought hard to get to this position for a shot at the post-season. KC is 2-8 in their last 10. I like the Twins here in a blow-out.

Saturday Pick

Take the Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals Under 7 (+100).

Last night these two teams managed 10 hits and 5 runs in a 3-2 St Louis win and today these two pitchers will be just as tough to get hits and runs off, so we like the under here today. Neither the Cubs or St Louis is hitting the cover off the ball and with Carpenter pitching at home where he has a 2.76 ERA, and during the day where it's even better at 2.40. Add in the fact he has allowed only 3 runs vs the Cubs this year in 11 innings pitched. He has a 3-1 mark and a 1.69 ERA vs the Cubs at home. Yes, the Cubs will find the going tough today for sure.

The Cardinals are also struggling at the plate and haven't hit Dempster a lot this year. He has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 games overall and this same pitching matchup back in May finished with a 2-1 final score. Cubs are 7-2-1 UNDER in their last 10 road games and 7-2 UNDER in their last 9 games overall while St Louis is 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 overall. In 8 meetings this year, the UNDER has hit in 6 games.

Adding the Minnesota Twins (+110) and Air Force (-17).
Good Luck All!

TGIF Plays....

Today, take the Los Angeles Dodgers (-138) to beat the San Francisco Giants. I like the value here for us with the Dodgers once again giving it to Sanchez. They have won all 4 games started by him this year by the following scores. 9-1 (six days ago), 4-2/8-0/5-3. As you can see they have pounded him twice and won two closer games, but the fact is all 4 have been by 2 runs or more. Now, not that it's a surety to happen tonight, but Padilla has pitched very well for the Dodgers since his arrival and San Francisco's lineup can struggle at times.

Also adding the New York Yankees as a +108 dog.

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Tuesday night play

Today, we like the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

We are going back to the well here as well as Wolf is a pitcher who has made us some money this year and with some extra rest after skipping a start due to a slight injury, he should be more than ready to continue his strong pitching performances. He is 3-0 his last 3 with a 2.21 ERA and LA has won 5 straight games he's started where he's had a 2.09 ERA over that span with an impressive 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Duke, on the other hand is in bad form. Not only is he 0-3 his last 3, he has allowed 32 hits in ONLY 13 innings and has a 12.46 ERA. He is 1-3 lifetime vs the Dodgers with a 7.53 ERA while Wolf is 7-1 vs Pitt in his career. Did I mention Pitt is hitting a paltry .145 vs left-handed pitching and has lost 19 of their last 21 on the road.

Saturday action.

Today's pick is the Washington Nationals & Florida Marlins OVER 9.5 -123.

These two teams have been going over all year long, but the last two have went under the number by half a run but that will end as the trend of overs continues tonight. The OVER is 11-4-1 in the last 15 meetings and has gone over in 21 of Florida's last 27 games as a favorite. Sanchez had a good outing vs Washington last week, but with the Nationals seeing him twice in such a short span, it is to their advantage. Sanchez does throw a lot of pitches and walks guys at a high enough rate that it puts himself in situations where he rarely gets past the 5th inning. Florida's bullpen has an ERA of 7.53 and a group Washington has had success against.

Washington is hitting .282 vs lefties their last 10 and should get some runs tonight vs Sanchez. However, it probably won't be enough as the hot Marlins lost last night and that won't sit well with this team that is hitting .290 vs righties their last 10. They face a virtual unknown in Estrada who is a journeymen minor leaguer with a career ERA of 7.82. Florida should get to him quite easily being as hungry and hot as they are then they too get to feast on a Washington bullpen with a 6.10 ERA. Florida has averaged 6.7 runs per game their last 10 and if they continue that tonight, we should get our over.

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Sunday Gravy Plays

Today, I like the New York Yankees -144 vs the Toronto Blue Jays. Getting the Yankees at this price going up against a left hander who hasn't been good for quite some time is too good to pass up. The Yankees are hitting .300 vs lefthanders on the road, while the Jays are struggling vs right handers with a .205 clip their last 10. Mitre has been decent his last 3 with only 14 hits allowed in 16 innings and a 2.16 ERA. Tallet on the other hand is 0-3 his last 3, with a 7.46 ERA. Like the decent price on a team that has won 50 of its last 68 games.

Adding the Chicago White Sox (+120).

Saturday afternoon value play.

Should the Chicago Cubs be favored against anyone when they're on the road? They are 18-46 on the road for a .281 winning percentage.

Figueroa held them to 1 run over 6 innings just last week and Mets are getting clutch hits right now and Cubs are not.

Good home value on the Mets who have won 2/3 of their home games, and are paying +158 today!

Wednesday afternoon action

The Twins start lefty Brian Duensing. As miserable as the Sox are, they do bat .284 against lefties (2nd in the AL). Duensing is 2-1 with the Twins, with a 4.37 and a .249 batting average against. In triple A though he was 4-6 with a 4.66 ERA and a .298 batting average against. He is nothing special.

Meanwhile, the Sox start lefty Mark Buehrle. The Twins bat a solid .280 against lefties (4th in the AL). On the year, Buehrle is 11-7 with a 3.89 ERA and a .274 batting average against. On the road this year his ERA is 4.13. In his last 3 starts however he has allowed 28 hits and 4 walks in 17.1 innings, for an ERA of 5.82. On turf this year he is 1-2 with an 8.82 ERA and a .338 batting average against. Against the Twins this year he is 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA and a .281 batting average against. At the Metrodome this year he is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA and a .357 batting average against. From 2006-2008, the Twins batted .306 against him. And at the Metrodome from 2006-2008, he had a 4.50 ERA and a .356 batting average against.

Taking the Over 8.5 (-120) in the Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins game, and adding the Twins to win at (+150)

Manic Monday Selection

Today, I like the Texas Rangers -1.5 +115 vs the Toronto Blue Jays. The two teams are going in opposite directions as Texas has fought hard all year and find themselves in the playoff races both for their division and the wild card spot.

Toronto has seemingly mailed it in. They are 3-7 in their last 10, and Cecil hasn't been the same since coming off the DL. He has an 8.25 ERA his last 3, has been outscored 15-4 in his last 2 and Texas is a strong team at home with a 41-24 record, while Toronto is only 11-25 in Texas their last 36 games and only 17-35 on the road their last 52. Home team wins soundly tonight.

Thursday Early Game Pick

The Tigers start Jarrod Washburn. His first 2 starts for Detroit were shaky but he settled down last time out. He is 5th in ERA in the AL at 2.95. Even with his 2 mediocre starts for Detroit, he is still 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA since the All-Star break. He is 1-1 at Comerica with a .226 batting average against.

The Seattle Mariners start Ryan Rowland-Smith. He is 2-1 on the year with a 3.60 ERA. For the month of August he is 1-0 with a 4.08 ERA and a .234 batting average against. For his career against the Tigers he is 0-0 but with a 3.48 ERA and a .167 batting average against.

The Tigers are 16-25 to the under in day games this year and they are 18-29 (5-11 since the All-Star break) to the under when playing a team with a winning record. The Mariners are 23-35 to the under on the road this year and they are 13-23 to the under in day games.

Today's pick is the Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers under 8.5 (-115).

3 Tuesday Plays for August 18th

1-0 to start the week, let's get to today's picks.

I like the Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 9 (-115).
These two teams simply put up runs when they meet. They have played 9 times this year and have gone OVER the number in 7 of them. Now Ohlendorf has been strong at home this year, but Milwaukee has been hitting much better of late, including the long ball, but they also have been giving up runs by the ton as well. Last night Pittsburgh won 9-5 and tonight this number is also beatable. When Parra starts on the road for Milwaukee, you can almost guarantee high scoring games. They are 9-2 OVER in his 11 road starts and he has a 7.18 ERA on the road. These two teams have combined to go OVER the total 13-4-3 in their last 20 games combined and I look for another OVER tonight.

Florida Marlins vs Houston Astros OVER 9 (-105).
Florida is batting .327 for the month of August, and while that is impressive, it's not as impressive as getting 10 or more hits in each of their last 13 games. They are averaging 7.2 runs per game their last 10 and have went OVER the total in 11 straight game. Now they head into Houston where it's known as a hitter's park and Houston has been doing their own damage of late as well. They have gone OVER the number in 7 of their last 9 games and when these two teams met just over a week ago for a 4 game series in Florida, the totals were: 11/20/17 and 14. The 20 runs were scored with the exact same pitchers as we have tonight.

Also added the Los Angeles Angels (-104)

Manic Monday Play

We had a 4-1 weekend, let's start the week with one strong play.

Today, I like the Los Angeles Angels (-102) vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles start right handed pitcher David Hernandez. He is 4-4 on the year with a 3.81 ERA and a .278 batting average against. At home this season he is 2-2 with a low 3.22 ERA but his batting average against at Camden is .292. Over his last 3 outings (month of August) he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a batting average against of .328. The Angels, who bat an AL-best .295 against righties, an AL-best .289 on the road, and an MLB-best .348 over the past 7 days should hit well tonight.

The Angels start Ervin Santana. He is 5-6 with a 6.38 ERA and a .296 batting average against. on the road this year he is much better, 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a .251 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 4-1 with a 4.89 ERA and a .232 batting average against. For the month of August he is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a .163 batting average against. After a lousy start to the season, Santana has been coming on strong lately.

Monday's play is the Los Angeles Angels (-102)

3 Sunday Gravy Plays

We went 2-0 yesterday which now makes us 18-12 for August.

For Sunday I like the Cleveland Indians (+132) against the Minnesota Twins.

On the year Blackburn is 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA and a .292 batting average against. He has good numbers at home this year, as well as good numbers against Cleveland, but his recent performances have been awful. ERA over his last 3 outings is 6.43. For August he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and as .382 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 0-3 with an 8.87 ERA and a batting average against of .407. In 23.1 innings since the All-Star break, he has allowed 44 hits and 5 walks with only 6 strikeouts.

The Indians start Aaron Laffey. He is 6-3 on the year with a 3.25 ERA and a .255 batting average against. His ERA over his last 3 outings is 3.00. Against the Twins this year he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a .208 batting average against. For the month of August he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a .218 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+109) and the Yankees -1.5 (-115)

Have a great Sunday!

2 Saturday Plays

Today, I like the Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians Over 9.5 (-115).

The Twins start Anthony Swarzak. He is 3-5 with a 5.44 ERA and a .297 batting average against. At home this year he is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA and a .343 batting average against. Against the Indians this year he is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and a .429 batting average against. In his last 3 outings, he has an ERA of 10.13 and in the month of August, he is 0-2 with an ERA of 24.75, allowing 17 hits and 11 earned runs in only 4 innings, and a batting average against for the month of .607.

The Indians start David Huff. He is 6-6 with a 6.72 ERA and a .315 batting average against. On the road he is 4-3 with a 7.20 ERA and a .316 batting average against. Against the Twins this year he is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA and a batting average against of .426. Over his last 3 starts, his ERA is 8.00. For the month of August he is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a .388 batting average against. The Twins, who are batting an AL-best .326 over the past 7 days, are going to put runs on the board.

Also adding the New York Yankees (-130)

2 picks for Thursday August 13th

Today's play is the San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5 (-125).Listed Pitchers are Cesar Carillo and Manny Parra. So far in this head to head series with all games having taken place in the last 2 weeks, San Diego has won 4 of the 5 games. In this 3rd game of the series in Milwaukee, San Diego has won the first two and both games went OVER the number with 19 and 11 runs respectively. Milwuakee will be coming hard today to try and get theirs and they send Manny Parra to the mound, who, despite having a 5.59 ERA in his last 3 and a 5.04 ERA since the All Star break is 4-0 in that time. He is simply getting great run support at an average of 8 runs a game and Milwaukee batters will look to do that for him again today and have a good chance of keeping up their big run support for Parra. They get to face Carillo, a kid who has 23 starts in the Minors this year with only an 8-6 record and a 4.26 ERA. Milwaukee should be able to get to this guy, and might have to as Parra's only start vs San Diego in his career, in Sept of last year, saw him give up 6 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings. It looks like both teams will get theirs today and with neither bullpen in great form, this game has a strong chance of going OVER 9.5.

Adding Boston Red Sox (+104)

Good Luck All!

Wednesday Bases Aug 12th

Now 14-10 for the month of August.

Today, I like the Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles over 10 (-130). First, you have starting pitchers with ERAs of 5.70 and 6.72. The Orioles are 7-3 over for their last 10 and 38-28 over on the year against right handed pitchers. The A's are 6-1 over for their last 7, 8-3 over in August, and when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the year, they are 7-1 to the over.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+111).

Tuesday Plays August 11th

Now 12-9 for the Month of August.

Today's pick is the Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Over 9.5 (-110).
Kansas City is 7-2 to the over in August and in fact they've had 7 overs in a row. The Twins are 6-1 to the over in August, and they are 7-1-1 to the over for their last 9. These teams have played 3 times this year at the Metrodome. All 3 have gone over the total.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+106) and the San Francisco Giants (+120) as value plays.

Good Luck!

Manic Monday Picks for August 10th

Now 10-7 for the month of August.

Tonight, I like the St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+125) vs the Cincinnati Reds. The listed pitchers are Johnny Cueto and Kyle Lohse. Lohse hasn't been great this year, and lately he has been awful, but those were road performances. At home he has a strong ERA of 2.98 and a winning record, and if he's close to that kind of performance in his home park tonight, this game should be a runaway for the Cardinals since the Reds are hitting only .215 in the last 7 days.

Cueto has been horrible both home or away since the All Star break. He is 0-5 in his last 6 with a 9.85 ERA and an 8.44 ERA in his last 3. Since the All Star break the opposition is crushing him with a .365 batting average. He has two good starts vs St Louis this year, but much earlier in the year. Cueto has to face a St Louis team hitting just under .300 the past 7 days and Pujols, who is on a .550 tear with 8 RBIs his last 5 games, and Holliday, who is hitting .466 since joining the Cards.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angles (+118), San Francisco Giants (+105) and New York Yankees (-141).

Sunday Gravy Plays for August 9th

Now 9-6 for the month of August.

Today's pick is the Florida Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 9.5 (-117).
Listed Pitchers are Josh Johnson and Jamie Moyer. These two pitchers have faced this opposition once this year with very good results. Johnson went 7 innings and didn't allow a run and gave up only 3 hits. Moyer in his last start vs Florida went 7 innings and allowed only 1 hit in a 4-0 win. Moyer enjoys pitching vs Florida where he has a 13-2 record lifetime and 2.83 ERA. He will come out hard today to show that he deserves to stay in this crowded rotation that Philadelphia seems to have now, while Johnson will come out equally hard after giving up 4 runs for the first time this year in any of his starts. The guy has been masterful all year and is facing a Philly team that is struggling with only 3 wins in their last 10 and batting .217 vs righthanded pitching in their last 10 games.

Also adding New York Yankees (-109)

Saturday Total

The Milwaukee Brewers start left handed pitcher Manny Parra. Houston bats a very solid .278 against lefties. Parra is 6-8 on the year with a 6.33 ERA and a .298 batting average against. On the road he is 4-5 with an ERA of 7.39 and a batting average against of .317. Since the All-Star break he is 3-0 but with a 5.04 ERA and a .308 batting average against. He is 0-1 against Houston this year with a 1.80 ERA. However, for his career before this season (2006-2008) his ERA against Houston was 5.47 and his batting average against was .356. At Minute Maid he is 1-1 with a 9.64 ERA and a .452 batting average against.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros start lefty Mike Hampton. On the year he is 7-8 with a 5.14 ERA and a .293 batting average against. At home he is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a .315 batting average against. This year against the Brewers his ERA is 5.40 and his batting average against is .314. He is 2-2 since the break, but his ERA is 7.59 and his batting average against is .365. In 21.1 innings, he has allowed 31 hits and 12 walks.

The Astros are 14-8 to the over this year against lefties, while the Brewers are 17-8 to the over against lefties. The Astros are 7-2 to the over when playing against losing teams in the second half of the season, while the Brewers are 10-3 to the over when installed as a road fave of between -100 and -125.

Saturday's play is over 9 (-120) in the Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers game.