MLB Sunday

Taking the Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-105). This chance to make the playoffs is in the Minnesota Twins hands now after the Chicago Whitesox helped them get to this point today by beating the Detroit Tigers yesterday. Now the Tigers and Twins are tied on top of the Central Dvision and if both win today they go to a single game tiebreaker. But if one team loses, the other heads to the American League Playoffs. Detroit starts an hour earlier than the Twins so Minnesota will get to see how things are playing out but the real edge today is in favor of the Twins simply because of their opponent and who is pitching. While Detroit has to face a strong lefthander in John Danks, the Twins get the good fortune of facing Luke Hocehvar.

Not that they should be cocky about this, nor will they be,but Minnesota facing this guy on the road is a good thing. Hochevar has a 7.53 ERA and only a 3-7 record away from Kansas City. At home he is decent, on the road is another story. In 4 of his last 5 starts on the road, his pitching line is disturbing. He has allowed 26 runs and 37 hits in only 20 innings pitched. He just doesn't get hit, he gets bombed on the road, and Minnesota will be showing up today for sure.

This isn't about Minnesota's pitcher Carl Pavano pitching on 3 days rest, as the leash will be short if he gets into trouble, it's about Minnesota making the most of their opportunity and gettting to this kid Hocehvar and then to a KC bullpen which is not as good as Minnesota's. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 as they fought hard to get to this position for a shot at the post-season. KC is 2-8 in their last 10. I like the Twins here in a blow-out.

Wednesday afternoon action

The Twins start lefty Brian Duensing. As miserable as the Sox are, they do bat .284 against lefties (2nd in the AL). Duensing is 2-1 with the Twins, with a 4.37 and a .249 batting average against. In triple A though he was 4-6 with a 4.66 ERA and a .298 batting average against. He is nothing special.

Meanwhile, the Sox start lefty Mark Buehrle. The Twins bat a solid .280 against lefties (4th in the AL). On the year, Buehrle is 11-7 with a 3.89 ERA and a .274 batting average against. On the road this year his ERA is 4.13. In his last 3 starts however he has allowed 28 hits and 4 walks in 17.1 innings, for an ERA of 5.82. On turf this year he is 1-2 with an 8.82 ERA and a .338 batting average against. Against the Twins this year he is 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA and a .281 batting average against. At the Metrodome this year he is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA and a .357 batting average against. From 2006-2008, the Twins batted .306 against him. And at the Metrodome from 2006-2008, he had a 4.50 ERA and a .356 batting average against.

Taking the Over 8.5 (-120) in the Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins game, and adding the Twins to win at (+150)

Thursday Early Game

We're now 8-3 for August. Today's pick is for the early game.

The Indians start Fausto Carmona. He has a record of 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA and a .278 batting average against. In 65.2 innings he has allowed 73 hits with 45 walks and only 37 strikeouts. More than 1 hit per inning and more walks than strikeouts is a recipe for disaster. In day games this year, his ERA is 12.38 and his batting average against is .314. Against the Twins this year he is 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA and a .361 batting average against. He just recently returned from an extended stint in the minors. At Triple A Columbus he went 1-3 with a 3.55 ERA. In his first game back he promptly allowed 4 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings pitched. For his career against the Twins he is 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins start Nick Blackburn. He has a record of 8-5 with a 3.83 ERA and a batting average against of .287. On the road he is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and a .292 batting average against. In his last 3 starts, his ERA is 9.98, his batting average against is .419. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 21 earned runs in 22.1 innings.

Thursday's play is over 9.5 (-105) in the Cleveland Indians - Minnesota Twins game.

Total Tuesday

We went 1-1 yesterday. Here's Tuesday's play.

The Chicago White Sox start Mark Buehrle. Because of his perfect game, the under will get a lot of support. On the year he is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and a .247 batting average against. On the road his ERA jumps to 4.53 and his batting average against shoots up to .284. Against the Minnesota Twins this year his ERA is 5.40 and his batting average against is .303. In the Metrodome this year his ERA is 21.60 and his batting average against is .526. From 2006-2008 he was 2-2 in the Metrodome with a 4.50 ERA and a .356 batting average against. Check out these career numbers against Buehrle, each with 14 or more career at bats: Cuddyer .316, Punto .282, Redmond .457, Harris .320, Young .400, Gomez .444, and Span .429. Other than Mauer and Morneau everyone on the Twins hits Buehrle hard.

Meanwhile, the Twins start Scott Baker. He is 8-7 on the year with a 5.04 ERA, and a .258 batting average against. At home this season he is 4-4 with a 5.70 ERA. For the month of July his ERA is 5.24, and his batting average against is .304. Against the White Sox this year he is 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA. For his entire career against the Sox he is 4-3 with a 6.88 ERA. At the Metrodome this year, 3 of 4 games between these teams have gone over. In the last 3 years, 15 of 22 games between these 2 teams in the Metrodome have gone over the total. The Twins are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games.

Tuesday's play is over 8.5 (+100) in the Twins vs White Sox game.