Thursday Afternoon Baseball Pick

Rained out yesterday.

Today, I like the Washington Nationals (-122)

The Nats start righty J.D. Martin. The Astros bat a NL-worst .229 against right handed pitchers. The Astros also bat a NL-worst .227 during day games. Martin has made only 1 start this season. He lost to the Padres but his ERA is only 1.50 and his BAA is .174.

Meanwhile, the Astros start Brian Moehler. He is 0-2 with a 7.29 ERA and a .364 BAA. As a starter this year his ERA is 26.97.

I'll take my chances with Washington today.

Good Luck!

Sunday Gravy Play

San Francisco (20-15) opened the year with three straight wins in Houston, outscoring the Astros 18-6. It's been a similar story this weekend in California, with the Giants limiting Houston to three total runs while winning the first two games. San Francisco hasn't swept two series from the Astros (13-23) in a single season since 2000.

Zito is 5-1, 1.90 ERA. The 2002 AL Cy Young winner made his season debut against the Astros on April 6, and gave up three hits and a walk in six innings of a 3-0 victory -- an outing that set the tone for the first 5-0 start of his career. Now, he'll try for a win against a Houston team that is batting .194 through the first five meetings of the season series.

Myers made his season debut against San Francisco on April 7, giving up four runs and 12 hits in six innings but not receiving a decision in Houston's 10-4 loss. He is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in six starts versus the Giants.

Taking the Giants (-160)

Good Luck!

Saturday Total

The Milwaukee Brewers start left handed pitcher Manny Parra. Houston bats a very solid .278 against lefties. Parra is 6-8 on the year with a 6.33 ERA and a .298 batting average against. On the road he is 4-5 with an ERA of 7.39 and a batting average against of .317. Since the All-Star break he is 3-0 but with a 5.04 ERA and a .308 batting average against. He is 0-1 against Houston this year with a 1.80 ERA. However, for his career before this season (2006-2008) his ERA against Houston was 5.47 and his batting average against was .356. At Minute Maid he is 1-1 with a 9.64 ERA and a .452 batting average against.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros start lefty Mike Hampton. On the year he is 7-8 with a 5.14 ERA and a .293 batting average against. At home he is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a .315 batting average against. This year against the Brewers his ERA is 5.40 and his batting average against is .314. He is 2-2 since the break, but his ERA is 7.59 and his batting average against is .365. In 21.1 innings, he has allowed 31 hits and 12 walks.

The Astros are 14-8 to the over this year against lefties, while the Brewers are 17-8 to the over against lefties. The Astros are 7-2 to the over when playing against losing teams in the second half of the season, while the Brewers are 10-3 to the over when installed as a road fave of between -100 and -125.

Saturday's play is over 9 (-120) in the Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers game.

Bounce Back Tuesday

Went 1-2 yesterday with 1 rainout. We bounce back today with the following.

First, I like the over 10 runs in the Rays/White Sox. Here's why:

Both teams are hitting very well right now. The Rays are batting .306 over the past 7 days (2nd in the AL), while the Sox are 3rd in the AL at .289. Guess which team has scored the most runs in the AL this year against lefties. If you said the Rays you would be right (164). Conveniently, the White Sox are starting a lefty tonight. Clayton Richard is 3-3 on the year but with a 5.42 ERA, a .296 batting average against. At home this year his ERA is 6.83 and his batting average against is .307. For the month of July, he has an ERA of 19.29, and a batting average against of .500

Meanwhile the Rays go with Jeff Niemann. He is 8-4 with a 3.73 ERA and a .261 batting average against. In July his ERA is only 2.25 but his batting average against is .271. On the road this year his ERA is 4.08. He is 0-1 against the Sox this year with a .346 batting average against. For his career he is 0-2 against the Sox with a 6.75 ERA


Second, I like the Astros -139 to beat the Cardinals. The Astros start lefty Wandy Rodriguez. The Cards are horrible against lefties, batting only .226 against them. Wandy is 9-6 on the year with a 2.81 ERA (7th in the NL)and a .249 batting average against. He is 8th in the NL in strikeouts with 112. At home this year he is 4-2 with a 2.21 ERA and a .222 batting average against. This month he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and a .218 batting average against.

The Cardinals go with Todd Wellemeyer. He is 7-7 on the year with a 5.56 ERA and a .319 batting average against. He is 10th in the NL in walks with 47. For the month of July he is 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA and his batting average against is .333. On the road this year his ERA is 5.90 and his batting average against is .350.

Third, I'll keep riding the Phillies train, as they are 9-1 in their last 10. To get them at (-129) is a value play right now.

Today's 3 plays are Tampa Bay vs. Chisox Over 10 (+111), Houston Astros (-139) and Philadelphia (-129)

Have a great day!

Another total for Tuesday.

The Pittsburgh Pirates start lefty Paul Maholm tonight. The Houston Astros hit .285 against left handed pitching, and Maholm is a crummy lefty. For the year his ERA is 4.69 and his batting average against is .290. On the road, his ERA jumps to 6.05 and his batting average against is .304. At Minute Maid Park this year, his ERA is 5.14. At Minute Maid from 2006-2008, his ERA was 8.70 and his batting average against was .337. In his last 4 outings, he has allowed 38 hits and 7 walks in only 21.1 innings.

Meanwhile, the Astros start Brian Moehler. On the year he has a 5.64 ERA and a .304 batting average against. At home his ERA is 7.81 and his batting average against is .359. For his career against the Pirates he is 6-5 with a 6.07 ERA. He is 1-1 against the Pirates this year with a 4.76 ERA and a .304 batting average against. He has seemingly pitched well lately (2.65 ERA over his last 3 starts), but don't let that fool you, as he has feasted mostly on the bottom-feeders of both leagues (San Diego, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Arizona).

These two teams have played 3 times this year at Minute Maid Park. All 3 have gone over the total. Tonight makes number 4.

Today's play is over 9 (-115) in the Astros vs. Pirates game.

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