Monday, August 31, 2009

Manic Monday Selection

Today, I like the Texas Rangers -1.5 +115 vs the Toronto Blue Jays. The two teams are going in opposite directions as Texas has fought hard all year and find themselves in the playoff races both for their division and the wild card spot.

Toronto has seemingly mailed it in. They are 3-7 in their last 10, and Cecil hasn't been the same since coming off the DL. He has an 8.25 ERA his last 3, has been outscored 15-4 in his last 2 and Texas is a strong team at home with a 41-24 record, while Toronto is only 11-25 in Texas their last 36 games and only 17-35 on the road their last 52. Home team wins soundly tonight.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Thursday Early Game Pick

The Tigers start Jarrod Washburn. His first 2 starts for Detroit were shaky but he settled down last time out. He is 5th in ERA in the AL at 2.95. Even with his 2 mediocre starts for Detroit, he is still 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA since the All-Star break. He is 1-1 at Comerica with a .226 batting average against.

The Seattle Mariners start Ryan Rowland-Smith. He is 2-1 on the year with a 3.60 ERA. For the month of August he is 1-0 with a 4.08 ERA and a .234 batting average against. For his career against the Tigers he is 0-0 but with a 3.48 ERA and a .167 batting average against.

The Tigers are 16-25 to the under in day games this year and they are 18-29 (5-11 since the All-Star break) to the under when playing a team with a winning record. The Mariners are 23-35 to the under on the road this year and they are 13-23 to the under in day games.

Today's pick is the Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers under 8.5 (-115).

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

3 Tuesday Plays for August 18th

1-0 to start the week, let's get to today's picks.

I like the Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 9 (-115).
These two teams simply put up runs when they meet. They have played 9 times this year and have gone OVER the number in 7 of them. Now Ohlendorf has been strong at home this year, but Milwaukee has been hitting much better of late, including the long ball, but they also have been giving up runs by the ton as well. Last night Pittsburgh won 9-5 and tonight this number is also beatable. When Parra starts on the road for Milwaukee, you can almost guarantee high scoring games. They are 9-2 OVER in his 11 road starts and he has a 7.18 ERA on the road. These two teams have combined to go OVER the total 13-4-3 in their last 20 games combined and I look for another OVER tonight.

Florida Marlins vs Houston Astros OVER 9 (-105).
Florida is batting .327 for the month of August, and while that is impressive, it's not as impressive as getting 10 or more hits in each of their last 13 games. They are averaging 7.2 runs per game their last 10 and have went OVER the total in 11 straight game. Now they head into Houston where it's known as a hitter's park and Houston has been doing their own damage of late as well. They have gone OVER the number in 7 of their last 9 games and when these two teams met just over a week ago for a 4 game series in Florida, the totals were: 11/20/17 and 14. The 20 runs were scored with the exact same pitchers as we have tonight.

Also added the Los Angeles Angels (-104)

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Monday, August 17, 2009

Manic Monday Play

We had a 4-1 weekend, let's start the week with one strong play.

Today, I like the Los Angeles Angels (-102) vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles start right handed pitcher David Hernandez. He is 4-4 on the year with a 3.81 ERA and a .278 batting average against. At home this season he is 2-2 with a low 3.22 ERA but his batting average against at Camden is .292. Over his last 3 outings (month of August) he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a batting average against of .328. The Angels, who bat an AL-best .295 against righties, an AL-best .289 on the road, and an MLB-best .348 over the past 7 days should hit well tonight.

The Angels start Ervin Santana. He is 5-6 with a 6.38 ERA and a .296 batting average against. on the road this year he is much better, 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a .251 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 4-1 with a 4.89 ERA and a .232 batting average against. For the month of August he is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a .163 batting average against. After a lousy start to the season, Santana has been coming on strong lately.

Monday's play is the Los Angeles Angels (-102)

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Sunday, August 16, 2009

3 Sunday Gravy Plays

We went 2-0 yesterday which now makes us 18-12 for August.

For Sunday I like the Cleveland Indians (+132) against the Minnesota Twins.

On the year Blackburn is 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA and a .292 batting average against. He has good numbers at home this year, as well as good numbers against Cleveland, but his recent performances have been awful. ERA over his last 3 outings is 6.43. For August he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and as .382 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 0-3 with an 8.87 ERA and a batting average against of .407. In 23.1 innings since the All-Star break, he has allowed 44 hits and 5 walks with only 6 strikeouts.

The Indians start Aaron Laffey. He is 6-3 on the year with a 3.25 ERA and a .255 batting average against. His ERA over his last 3 outings is 3.00. Against the Twins this year he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a .208 batting average against. For the month of August he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a .218 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+109) and the Yankees -1.5 (-115)

Have a great Sunday!

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Saturday, August 15, 2009

2 Saturday Plays

Today, I like the Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians Over 9.5 (-115).

The Twins start Anthony Swarzak. He is 3-5 with a 5.44 ERA and a .297 batting average against. At home this year he is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA and a .343 batting average against. Against the Indians this year he is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and a .429 batting average against. In his last 3 outings, he has an ERA of 10.13 and in the month of August, he is 0-2 with an ERA of 24.75, allowing 17 hits and 11 earned runs in only 4 innings, and a batting average against for the month of .607.

The Indians start David Huff. He is 6-6 with a 6.72 ERA and a .315 batting average against. On the road he is 4-3 with a 7.20 ERA and a .316 batting average against. Against the Twins this year he is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA and a batting average against of .426. Over his last 3 starts, his ERA is 8.00. For the month of August he is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a .388 batting average against. The Twins, who are batting an AL-best .326 over the past 7 days, are going to put runs on the board.

Also adding the New York Yankees (-130)

The Wine Messenger

Thursday, August 13, 2009

2 picks for Thursday August 13th

Today's play is the San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5 (-125).Listed Pitchers are Cesar Carillo and Manny Parra. So far in this head to head series with all games having taken place in the last 2 weeks, San Diego has won 4 of the 5 games. In this 3rd game of the series in Milwaukee, San Diego has won the first two and both games went OVER the number with 19 and 11 runs respectively. Milwuakee will be coming hard today to try and get theirs and they send Manny Parra to the mound, who, despite having a 5.59 ERA in his last 3 and a 5.04 ERA since the All Star break is 4-0 in that time. He is simply getting great run support at an average of 8 runs a game and Milwaukee batters will look to do that for him again today and have a good chance of keeping up their big run support for Parra. They get to face Carillo, a kid who has 23 starts in the Minors this year with only an 8-6 record and a 4.26 ERA. Milwaukee should be able to get to this guy, and might have to as Parra's only start vs San Diego in his career, in Sept of last year, saw him give up 6 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings. It looks like both teams will get theirs today and with neither bullpen in great form, this game has a strong chance of going OVER 9.5.

Adding Boston Red Sox (+104)

Good Luck All!

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Wednesday Bases Aug 12th

Now 14-10 for the month of August.

Today, I like the Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles over 10 (-130). First, you have starting pitchers with ERAs of 5.70 and 6.72. The Orioles are 7-3 over for their last 10 and 38-28 over on the year against right handed pitchers. The A's are 6-1 over for their last 7, 8-3 over in August, and when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the year, they are 7-1 to the over.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+111).

Jelly Belly Jelly Beans

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Top Ten Little Known Facts About Derek Jeter

Top Ten Little Known Facts About Derek Jeter as per David Letterman.


10) In 2002, I set a Major League record of 97 consecutive games without scratching myself

9) I can put five baseballs in my mouth

8) Remember I missed a game last year with a "pulled hamstring"? I actually had Streisand tickets

7) When Johnny Damon cut his hair, I put it in my scrapbook

6) I'd trade my four World Series rings for a spot on the Late Show

5) When Red Sox fans shout, "Yankees suck," it really hurts my feelings

4) The thing I love most about being a baseball player is seeing a child's eyes light up big when I give him an autograph... Oh, and the crazy paycheck

3) Between you and me, I don't get all the ass-slapping either

2) So I'm not bothered by fans, I check into hotels under the name "Dave Letterman"

1) Rosie quit "The View" so we could spend more time together

Loads more Top Ten lists are available at http://toptentopten.com

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Tuesday Plays August 11th

Now 12-9 for the Month of August.

Today's pick is the Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Over 9.5 (-110).
Kansas City is 7-2 to the over in August and in fact they've had 7 overs in a row. The Twins are 6-1 to the over in August, and they are 7-1-1 to the over for their last 9. These teams have played 3 times this year at the Metrodome. All 3 have gone over the total.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angels (+106) and the San Francisco Giants (+120) as value plays.

Good Luck!

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Monday, August 10, 2009

Manic Monday Picks for August 10th

Now 10-7 for the month of August.

Tonight, I like the St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+125) vs the Cincinnati Reds. The listed pitchers are Johnny Cueto and Kyle Lohse. Lohse hasn't been great this year, and lately he has been awful, but those were road performances. At home he has a strong ERA of 2.98 and a winning record, and if he's close to that kind of performance in his home park tonight, this game should be a runaway for the Cardinals since the Reds are hitting only .215 in the last 7 days.

Cueto has been horrible both home or away since the All Star break. He is 0-5 in his last 6 with a 9.85 ERA and an 8.44 ERA in his last 3. Since the All Star break the opposition is crushing him with a .365 batting average. He has two good starts vs St Louis this year, but much earlier in the year. Cueto has to face a St Louis team hitting just under .300 the past 7 days and Pujols, who is on a .550 tear with 8 RBIs his last 5 games, and Holliday, who is hitting .466 since joining the Cards.

Also adding the Los Angeles Angles (+118), San Francisco Giants (+105) and New York Yankees (-141).

Popcornopolis

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Sunday Gravy Plays for August 9th

Now 9-6 for the month of August.

Today's pick is the Florida Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 9.5 (-117).
Listed Pitchers are Josh Johnson and Jamie Moyer. These two pitchers have faced this opposition once this year with very good results. Johnson went 7 innings and didn't allow a run and gave up only 3 hits. Moyer in his last start vs Florida went 7 innings and allowed only 1 hit in a 4-0 win. Moyer enjoys pitching vs Florida where he has a 13-2 record lifetime and 2.83 ERA. He will come out hard today to show that he deserves to stay in this crowded rotation that Philadelphia seems to have now, while Johnson will come out equally hard after giving up 4 runs for the first time this year in any of his starts. The guy has been masterful all year and is facing a Philly team that is struggling with only 3 wins in their last 10 and batting .217 vs righthanded pitching in their last 10 games.

Also adding New York Yankees (-109)

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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Saturday Total

The Milwaukee Brewers start left handed pitcher Manny Parra. Houston bats a very solid .278 against lefties. Parra is 6-8 on the year with a 6.33 ERA and a .298 batting average against. On the road he is 4-5 with an ERA of 7.39 and a batting average against of .317. Since the All-Star break he is 3-0 but with a 5.04 ERA and a .308 batting average against. He is 0-1 against Houston this year with a 1.80 ERA. However, for his career before this season (2006-2008) his ERA against Houston was 5.47 and his batting average against was .356. At Minute Maid he is 1-1 with a 9.64 ERA and a .452 batting average against.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros start lefty Mike Hampton. On the year he is 7-8 with a 5.14 ERA and a .293 batting average against. At home he is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a .315 batting average against. This year against the Brewers his ERA is 5.40 and his batting average against is .314. He is 2-2 since the break, but his ERA is 7.59 and his batting average against is .365. In 21.1 innings, he has allowed 31 hits and 12 walks.

The Astros are 14-8 to the over this year against lefties, while the Brewers are 17-8 to the over against lefties. The Astros are 7-2 to the over when playing against losing teams in the second half of the season, while the Brewers are 10-3 to the over when installed as a road fave of between -100 and -125.

Saturday's play is over 9 (-120) in the Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers game.

The Wine Messenger

Friday, August 7, 2009

TGIF play August 7th

The Oakland A's start Vin Mazzaro today. For the year he is 2-8 with a 5.73 ERA and a .316 batting average against. On the road this year he is 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA and a .306 batting average against. In the 4 starts since the break, he lasted only 18.1 innings. In those 18.1 innings, he has allowed 37 hits, 11 walks and 23 earned runs. His ERA over those 4 starts is 11.29, his batting average against is .420.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals start Brian Bannister. He is 7-7 on the year with a 3.59 ERA and a .252 batting average against. At home this year he is 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA and a .248 batting average against. Since the All-Star break his ERA is 3.28. Over his last 7 starts, his ERA is an awesome 2.58. Against the A's this year he is 0-1 but with a 3.18 ERA and a .238 batting average against. For his career against them he is 1-2 but with a very respectable 3.35 ERA.

Friday's play is the KC Royals at -131.

Adding the Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Over 9 (-115)

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Boston Value Play

Now that the line has reached +195, I will play the Boston Redsox to beat the New York Yankees for the value of the line. Good Luck tonight!

Thursday Early Game

We're now 8-3 for August. Today's pick is for the early game.

The Indians start Fausto Carmona. He has a record of 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA and a .278 batting average against. In 65.2 innings he has allowed 73 hits with 45 walks and only 37 strikeouts. More than 1 hit per inning and more walks than strikeouts is a recipe for disaster. In day games this year, his ERA is 12.38 and his batting average against is .314. Against the Twins this year he is 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA and a .361 batting average against. He just recently returned from an extended stint in the minors. At Triple A Columbus he went 1-3 with a 3.55 ERA. In his first game back he promptly allowed 4 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings pitched. For his career against the Twins he is 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins start Nick Blackburn. He has a record of 8-5 with a 3.83 ERA and a batting average against of .287. On the road he is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and a .292 batting average against. In his last 3 starts, his ERA is 9.98, his batting average against is .419. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 21 earned runs in 22.1 innings.

Thursday's play is over 9.5 (-105) in the Cleveland Indians - Minnesota Twins game.

The Wine Messenger

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Let's keep rolling

Now at 7-2 for the month of August.

Two picks for Wednesday.

The Boston Red Sox start Brad Penny. He is 7-5 with a 5.07 ERA and a .291 batting average against. On the road this year he is 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA and a .299 batting average against. Against the Rays this year he is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.38 and a batting average against of .286. For his career, his ERA against Tampa is 5.06. Since the All-Star break (his last 3 starts) he has been miserable. He is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and a .308 batting average against. The Rays should get to him tonight.

Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Rays start left handed pitcher David Price. He is 4-4 with a 5.10 ERA and a .265 batting average against. This will be his first career start against Boston. Since the All-Star break (last 3 starts) his ERA is 6.19 and his batting average against is .324. The Red Sox are batting .316 over the past 7 days, so they should get their share of runs as well.

Wednesday's play is over 9.5 (-120) in the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox game. Also adding the Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) to beat the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have a 7.97 ERA while losing six of their last 10 contests and the Dodgers are amazing at home.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Two for Tuesday August 4th

Coming off of a 5-2 weekend with some good dogs coming in for us.

Today, lets continue with these two picks.

I like the Over 7.5 (-120) in the New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays game as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers (-126) to beat the Milwaukee Brewers.

Have a great day!

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Monday, August 3, 2009

Top Ten Signs A Baseball Player Is Cheating

Top Ten Signs A Baseball Player Is Cheating as per David Letterman.

10) Tested positive for uranium

9) Always asking fans for clean urine

8) After each win, receives congratulatory phone call from Balco founder Victor Conte

7) Name on back of his uniform is "Bonds"

6) You can find him in the club house corking himself

5) Distracts opponents by throwing out the frozen head of Ted Williams

4) Somehow got 3 RBI's during the seventh-inning stretch

3) You haven't seen someone with that much Vaseline on them since the last Paris Hilton video

2) Pete Rose called him a disgrace to the game

1) His nickname is "Needle Ass"


Check out http://toptentopten.com for more super Top Ten Lists!


The Wine Messenger

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Sunday Gravy Plays for August 2nd

We went 2-1 yesterday and almost swept as the Dodgers hung in tough against the Braves yesterday. Let's look at Sunday's plays.

Take the St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-128) vs the Houston Astros. The Cardinals are on a run here as they lead the National League Central by a small margin and have won 5 of their last 6. Coincidentally, or not perhaps, is that their good fortune has coincided with the acquisition of Matt Holliday, who simply has been on fire since his arrival to St Louis. The guy is hitting .606 in the 9 games, including 3 home runs, two of them yesterday, and 10 doubles. He has also hit safely in all 9 games since becoming a Cardinal. Adam Wainwright absolutely owned July, with a 4-1 mark and a 1.17 ERA. Against Houston he has a career mark of 6-0 in 7 starts with an impressive 1.91 ERA. He faced them once already this year and that result was an 11-2 St Louis win.

Houston on the other hand is reeling. They have lost 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 8 and have injuries to key pitchers and in the bullpen. Today they start minor league pitcher Bud Norris who is 4-9 in Triple A and probably shouldn't last past the 5th inning. Then the bullpen for Houston kicks in and this group has a ERA of 8.07.

also adding...

Chicago White Sox - New York Yankees over 8.5 (-102)
Los Angeles Angels (-114)
San Francisco Giants (+161)

Have a great Sunday!

Chocolate.com

Saturday, August 1, 2009

I love L.A.

Well at least I do today. Some good value on both L.A. teams today.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+118)
Los Angeles Angels (+135)

and adding the Over 8.5 (-110) in the Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees game.


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