Thursday, May 27, 2010

Thursday Baseball Pick!

I like the A's -120 vs the Orioles tonight.

The O's start Brad Bergeson. He is 3-3 on the year with a 6.10 ERA and a .335 BAA. In 41.1 innings pitched this year, he has allowed a whopping 60 hits. And get this, he has as many walks (13) as strike outs. In his last 2 starts he allowed 21 hits and 3 walks in 11.2 innings. At home this year his ERA is 6.00 and his BAA is .325.

Meanwhile, the A's start Gonzalez. This converted reliever has been a find for the A's. He is 5-3 on the year with a 3.46 ERA and a .205 BAA. He is 2-1 on the road with a 4.22 ERA and a .276 BAA, but that is skewed by a recent bad outing against the Rangers in Texas. In his last 2 starts he went 15 innings, allowing only 6 hits and 5 walks. For the entire month of May he is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA and, get this, a .179 BAA. For his career against the O's he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. The Orioles bat only .257 against lefties, and they average only 3.30 runs against them.

The A's are 14-3 the last 17 times they faced the O's.

Good Luck!

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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Tuesday Baseball Pick!

Today, I like the Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9.5 -105.

I feel sorry for fans who bought tickets to this game. You have the National League's worst team in Houston coming to Milwaukee, who have a 4-14 record at home and have lost 11 of the last 13. The only upside to this game would be to have a lot of action in hits and runs scored and there is high probability that will happen. Although both teams haven't been on fire at the plate, they should get lots of looks tonight and chances to put on base runners. Paulino has a 10.12 ERA on the road, has a 8.53 ERA vs Milwaukee in his last 3 starts while Wolf has given up 12 runs and 17 hits in his last 11.1 innings pitched. Combined these two pitchers have gone OVER in their last 4 starts and Wolf gets solid run support from his mates to the tune of over 8 runs per start. Combined they are 5-1 OVER in their last 6, and Houston has averaged almost 5 runs per in their last 10 and are coming on. They get to face the 29th worst bullpen in the league.

Good Luck!

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Monday, May 24, 2010

Blue Monday Baseball Pick

Today, I like the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+155) over the Boston Red Sox.

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking for a fifth straight home win after completing a 4-1 road trip with Sunday's 10-6 win at Houston.

Of the 4 meetings between these two teams this season, the Rays have won by at least 2 runs on 3 of those occasions. Tampa Bay has won 65% of their home games this season.

Fri 4/16 TB 3, @BOS 1
Sat 4/17 TB 6, @BOS 5
Sun 4/18 TB 7, @BOS 1
Mon 4/19 TB 8, @BOS 2

Good Luck!


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Saturday, May 22, 2010

Saturday Bases May 22nd

Taking the Texas Rangers -1.5 +135 vs Chicago Cubs, game time is 7:10 p.m.
Listed Pitchers: Randy Wells and Derrek Holland.

I like the way Holland has thrown in coming back up from Triple A with his 2-0 mark and 2.38 ERA. On the other side, Wells hasn't thrown well in May after a good start. Texas is hitting at a .313 clip vs right handed pitching in their last 10 games and this team has won 5 straight games overall while winning 7 straight at home. Wells did get a win the other night, but it was against a punch less Colorado attack of late, and they still managed to average over a hit per inning against him. Texas is getting the clutch hits and cashing in runners and are averaging over 6.6 runs in May while Chicago is as inconsistent as they are now expected to be. I like the Rangers here to notch another win at home and continue their streak and this time by 2 runs or more.

Good Luck!

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Friday, May 21, 2010

Friday MLB Pick

Today, I like the over 9 (-120) in the Redsox vs Phillies game.

Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) will try to bounce back after allowing 11 runs in his last two starts. He gave up five in seven innings of a 5-1 defeat at Detroit on Sunday.

The Phillies counter with Cole Hamels, (4-2, 4.29) who will be looking to win a third straight start for the first time since winning four in a row in May 2007.

Both offenses have the capability of scoring runs, both pitchers ERAs are mediocre, this one may go early.

Good Luck!

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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wednesday Baseball Pick

The Yankees and Red Sox came through and now I'm 19-17 (-059) on the season.

Today, I like the Over 9.5 (-102) in the Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies game.

Phillies starter Jamie Moyer (5-2, 4.57 ERA), who began his career with the Cubs, is 3-1 with a 4.58 ERA in seven starts against them. The 47-year-old left-hander surrendered five runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-5 victory over Milwaukee in his last game.

Chicago will counter with Tom Gorzelanny (1-4, 3.60), who is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in his last two outings. The left-hander gave up a season-high five runs and nine hits in five innings of a 10-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday.In his only start against the Phillies, Gorzelanny yielded five runs and nine hits in five innings for Pittsburgh in an 11-8 loss Aug. 17, 2007.

There should be plenty of runs to cover the over.

Good Luck!


Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Tuesday Baseball Play

Now 18-17 (-159) for the season.

Today we're taking the Over 9 (-105)in the Red Sox vs Yankees game.

Boston starters have a 5.16 ERA that ranks near the bottom of the league, and the team is already 8 1/2 games behind first-place Tampa Bay.

Beckett (1-1, 7.46 ERA) has been dealing with back spasms since his most recent start May 7, when he allowed nine runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the Yankees.

Sabathia (4-2, 3.71) had more problems in his last outing, allowing a season-high six runs in six innings of a 6-0 loss at Detroit on Thursday.

The Over is 6-1 in games between these 2 teams this season.

Good Luck!

Monday, May 17, 2010

Blue Monday Play!

Zito came through yesterday, leaving our record at 18-16 (-059).

Today, we like the Toronto Blue Jays (+105)

The Toronto Blue Jays have won 11 of 14, thanks in large part to leading the majors in home runs and extra-base hits.

A critical homer of their own helped the Minnesota Twins avoid being swept over the weekend.

The Blue Jays go for their fifth straight win when they begin a two-game series against the visiting Twins on Monday night.

Toronto (23-16) continued to roll offensively over the weekend, sweeping three games from Texas by a combined score of 27-12. The Rangers scored 10 of those runs in Friday's series opener, managing 14 hits over the next two games.

Good Luck!

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Sunday, May 16, 2010

Sunday Gravy Play

San Francisco (20-15) opened the year with three straight wins in Houston, outscoring the Astros 18-6. It's been a similar story this weekend in California, with the Giants limiting Houston to three total runs while winning the first two games. San Francisco hasn't swept two series from the Astros (13-23) in a single season since 2000.

Zito is 5-1, 1.90 ERA. The 2002 AL Cy Young winner made his season debut against the Astros on April 6, and gave up three hits and a walk in six innings of a 3-0 victory -- an outing that set the tone for the first 5-0 start of his career. Now, he'll try for a win against a Houston team that is batting .194 through the first five meetings of the season series.

Myers made his season debut against San Francisco on April 7, giving up four runs and 12 hits in six innings but not receiving a decision in Houston's 10-4 loss. He is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in six starts versus the Giants.

Taking the Giants (-160)

Good Luck!

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Saturday Bases

The Phillies came through and I now stand at 17-15 (-049) on the season.

Today I love the Over 9 in the Blue Jays vs Rangers game.
The Jays start lefty Ricky Romero. On the year he is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA, and a .218 BAA. He does have good numbers against the Rangers in his one outing against them this year. In his last 2 starts, he has allowed 17 hits and 7 walks in 11.1 innings, for an ERA of 7.15 and a BAA of .347. He is 12th in walks in the AL. And over the past 7 days, the Rangers are batting an AL-best .301. I think the Rangers get to Romero today.

Meanwhile, the Rangers start Scott Feldman. On the year he is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and a .294 BAA. In his last 2 starts he has allowed 16 hits and 5 walks in 11 innings, for an ERA of 9.00 and a BAA of .327. On the road this year he is 0-2 with an ERA of 10.61 and a BAA of .378. He pitched well against the Jays in his one start against them this year, but last year his ERA against the Jays was 7.04 and his BAA was .300. From 2007-2009 he was 0-2 against the Jays with a 6.55 ERA and a .329 BAA. At the Rogers Centre his ERA was 11.57 and his BAA was .381. I know the Jays are not crushing the ball right now, but facing Scott Feldman will help take care of that.

Good Luck!

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Friday, May 14, 2010

Friday MLB Pick

Now 16-15 (-168) on the season.

Taking the Phillies +119.

Jamie Moyer is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 18 starts against Milwaukee, and his teams have gone 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus the Brewers. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 10 games, while the Brewers have a league-worst 4-11 home record. I'll bite.

Good Luck!

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Wednesday Bases & Ice

Now 16-14 (+011).

Today I have both a baseball and hockey play.

First Philadelphia (-179) in the afternoon game.

Halladay followed a three-hit shutout of New York on May 1 by holding St. Louis to two runs -- one earned -- while striking out nine over seven innings in a 7-2 win Thursday. He's off to a great start.

Cook went the distance in his last home start, an 8-1 victory over Florida on April 24. He is 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA in his last two outings, allowing five runs over five innings in a 6-5, 12-inning win at San Diego on Wednesday.

Cook is 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA in eight starts against the Phillies.
Philly should win this one easy.

Secondly, The Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins game should be tight checking from get go and both teams afraid to make a mistake. Montreal hasn't scored as much on road in this series, but continue to lock down Pitt night after night. I like the under 5.5 (-140) tonight.

Good Luck!

Monday, May 10, 2010

Moday Baseball Pick!

Now at 16-13 (+111) on the season.

Liking Milwaukee (+121)

A resurgent offense has powered Milwaukee, which scored 51 runs in six games after leaving San Diego. Doug Davis is 1-3, with an ERA of 8.13, but has five quality starts in his last six against Atlanta.

The Brewers have won their last 3, and 6 of their last 10, I'll take them as the dog at home against the Braves.

Good Luck!

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Saturday, May 8, 2010

Saturday Bases May 8th

The Jays came through in extra innings, now at 16-12 (+251) on the season.

Today, I'm going back to the Tampa Bay Rays (-140).

Tampa Bay (22-7) won its fifth straight, 4-1 in Friday's series opener, their starters have gone 4-0 with a 1.17 ERA on this trip.

The pitching matchup Saturday appears to favor Tampa Bay even though Davis (3-1, 2.79) is in his second season while Oakland starter Ben Sheets (1-3, 7.12) is a four-time All-Star. Sheets is the second pitcher in Oakland history to allow at least eight earned runs in back-to-back outings.

I like riding a streaking team, and at -140, it is a generous line.

Good Luck!

Friday, May 7, 2010

Friday MLB Pick

Tampa did not disappoint, now at 15-12 (+151) on the season.

Today, I'm on the Blue Jays (-102).

The Blue Jays try for a sixth straight victory when they continue their series with the Chisox tonight. Toronto is 10-3 away from home, and 4-0 on a 10-game trip that began with a sweep of Cleveland.

Shawn Marcum has had little to worry about when facing the White Sox, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts.

Chicago hopes ace Mark Buehrle (2-4, 5.30) can get back on track as he tries to avoid a fifth straight loss.Since throwing seven scoreless innings to beat Cleveland on opening day, Buehrle hasn't allowed less than four runs in any of his next five starts. He gave up five in 4 2/3 innings of a 12-3 loss at New York on Sunday.

All signs point to Toronto to continue their winning ways.

Good Luck!

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Thursday Night Baseball Pick!

Now 14-12 (+051) on the season.

Tampa Bay (20-7) improved to 11-1 on the road with an 8-3 victory Wednesday.

Tampa Bay starter Jeff Niemann (1-0, 2.76) will try to add to those woes after limiting hitters to a .206 average in his first five outings.

The Mariners (11-16) have scored nine runs during a five-game home skid -- their longest since they lost seven straight July 19-August 2, 2008.

I'll ride the Tampa train tonight paying (-138).

Good Luck!

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Wednesday Bases

Now 13-12 (-049) on the season.

Barry Zito is on his longest winning streak since a six-game run in 2006.
Zito has posted a 0.68 ERA while winning his last four starts against the Marlins (13-13). Two of those came last season, including a 2-1 victory in Florida on June 5.

Meanwhile, Marlins left-hander Nate Robertson (2-2, 5.18) ended April with a pair of losses. He gave up five runs, five hits and four walks over four innings in each outing.

I'll give the nod to the Giants at (-131)

Good Luck!

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Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday Night Baseball

Texas did not disappoint last night, we are now 12-12 (-149) on the season.

Tonight, we like the Tampa Bay Rays at (-140).

The Rays have averaged 6.9 runs while going a major league-best 9-1 on the road. They will look to improve that mark with James Shields (3-0, 3.38 ERA) on the mound.
Shields struck out a career high-tying 12 and gave up two runs over seven innings of a 10-3 victory over Oakland on Wednesday. He is 2-2 with a 2.34 ERA in six starts against Seattle.

Seattle is near the bottom of the AL with a .236 batting average and 86 runs. The Mariners have a league-worst nine homers, none in the last six games.

Good Luck!

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Monday, May 3, 2010

Blue Monday Play!

Now 11-12 (-266, we did happen to pick the winner in the Kentucky Derby.

Tonight, I like the Texas Rangers (+117).
Texas starters are 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over their last six games, they have won their last 3 games and 7 of their last 10.

While the Rangers have been playing better since their slow start because of their pitching, the Athletics (13-13) seem to be heading in the opposite direction because of theirs. Oakland has dropped five of six, including three of four at Toronto over the weekend.

Take the dog money today!

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Saturday Bases

Record is now 11-11 (-161)

Saturday's play is over 9.5 (-105) in the Florida Marlins vs Washington Nationals game.

The Nationals start Craig Stammen. He is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA and a .318 BAA. Last year against the Marlins he had an ERA of 10.29 and a BAA of .433. At Dolphin Stadium his ERA was 5.06 and his BAA was .333. In his one road game this year he was shelled. 7 hits in 1.1 innings, leading to a road ERA of 47.25 and a .700 BAA.

The question is will the Nats get to Volstad. On the year he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a .239 BAA. Volstad has faced the Nats for 16.2 innings, in those 16.2 innings, he allowed 22 hits and 16 walks, leading to a 6.48 ERA and a BAA of .319. It's not like Volstad is pitching all that well right now anyway. In his last 2 starts, he went 10.1 innings, allowing 12 hits, with 4 walks and only 2 strikeouts.

The Marlins are 8-3 to the over this year and 12-4 to the over against righties.

Good Luck!


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Kentucky Derby Pick

20 horses running late afternoon, so no doubt this isn't easy, but I have a lot of faith in Calvin Borel's talent in raising a horse's game.

(4) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)

With the defections of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif, Super Saver may now be the best hope from Todd Pletcher’s army of runners that was initially entered in the Derby. In his debut he was a well-beaten second when sprinting over a wet track, beaten by another Pletcher Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine. Super Saver then broke his maiden impressively in his second start. He enjoyed the stretch to a mile in the slop. Off that victory, Pletcher saw enough potential in Super Saver to wheel him back 1 month later in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont at the same distance. This was his first start on a dry track, and despite a fourth place finish, Super Saver ran very well. He set a strong pace from the start, repulsing several challenges, before giving ground grudgingly in the late stages. It is interesting to note that both the winner, Homeboykris and second place finisher, Discreetly Mine, are also in the Derby field.

Super Saver’s coming out party came 49 days later in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. This would be his first start around two turns and beyond a mile. Super Saver made full use of his good early speed, clearing early from his advantageous inside post, and easily wired the field by 5 lengths.

Todd Pletcher gave him the winter off to develop. He resurfaced 3-1/2 months later in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver jumped right out to a 2 length lead, but entering the backstretch, he faced intense pressure. He dug in tenaciously while battling right to the wire, but had to settle for third, beaten a half-length. He had done all the dirty work for the winner Odysseus and second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. It must be noted that both of those horses came out of the race to be well beaten in their subsequent start. Super Saver had passed a very important test, proving he was on his way to being a legitimate Derby contender if he could repeat that strong effort 4 weeks later in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Super Saver did pass that test while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. For only the second time in his career, Super Saver did not get the lead. He chased a fast pace in second, moved to challenge the lead at the top of the stretch, but was out-gamed late by Line Of David, losing by a neck while racing between the winner and Dublin to his outside for most of the stretch. The big question with Super Saver is how he will respond to those two very hard races since returning from his layoff. I feel that the two races can only benefit him. He had every chance to go by Line Of David last time out, but just couldn’t muster up the stamina to do so second start back. However, third start back he should be primed to peak. I prefer a horse that has proven he can look another horse in the eye, and fight on right to the wire. It’s not only about winning or losing. It’s all about heart and tenacity, and Super Saver has those important qualities. Both of his wins have been on the front end, but Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he could stalk and pounce. I have no doubt that 1-1/4 miles is well within his scope. His sire, Maria’s Mon, also sired 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and the mare Wait A While, a multiple G1 turf winner going long who, like Super Saver, is out of an A.P. Indy mare. Super Saver’s dam Supercharger is related to many of the great horses owned and bred by the regal Phipps stable. I don’t feel that Super Saver will win the Kentucky Derby, but he is a threat to make his presence felt at the wire.

I took 4/All and All/4 Exactas for this race.

Good Luck!


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