Saturday, May 1, 2010

Kentucky Derby Pick

20 horses running late afternoon, so no doubt this isn't easy, but I have a lot of faith in Calvin Borel's talent in raising a horse's game.

(4) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)

With the defections of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif, Super Saver may now be the best hope from Todd Pletcher’s army of runners that was initially entered in the Derby. In his debut he was a well-beaten second when sprinting over a wet track, beaten by another Pletcher Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine. Super Saver then broke his maiden impressively in his second start. He enjoyed the stretch to a mile in the slop. Off that victory, Pletcher saw enough potential in Super Saver to wheel him back 1 month later in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont at the same distance. This was his first start on a dry track, and despite a fourth place finish, Super Saver ran very well. He set a strong pace from the start, repulsing several challenges, before giving ground grudgingly in the late stages. It is interesting to note that both the winner, Homeboykris and second place finisher, Discreetly Mine, are also in the Derby field.

Super Saver’s coming out party came 49 days later in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. This would be his first start around two turns and beyond a mile. Super Saver made full use of his good early speed, clearing early from his advantageous inside post, and easily wired the field by 5 lengths.

Todd Pletcher gave him the winter off to develop. He resurfaced 3-1/2 months later in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver jumped right out to a 2 length lead, but entering the backstretch, he faced intense pressure. He dug in tenaciously while battling right to the wire, but had to settle for third, beaten a half-length. He had done all the dirty work for the winner Odysseus and second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. It must be noted that both of those horses came out of the race to be well beaten in their subsequent start. Super Saver had passed a very important test, proving he was on his way to being a legitimate Derby contender if he could repeat that strong effort 4 weeks later in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Super Saver did pass that test while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. For only the second time in his career, Super Saver did not get the lead. He chased a fast pace in second, moved to challenge the lead at the top of the stretch, but was out-gamed late by Line Of David, losing by a neck while racing between the winner and Dublin to his outside for most of the stretch. The big question with Super Saver is how he will respond to those two very hard races since returning from his layoff. I feel that the two races can only benefit him. He had every chance to go by Line Of David last time out, but just couldn’t muster up the stamina to do so second start back. However, third start back he should be primed to peak. I prefer a horse that has proven he can look another horse in the eye, and fight on right to the wire. It’s not only about winning or losing. It’s all about heart and tenacity, and Super Saver has those important qualities. Both of his wins have been on the front end, but Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he could stalk and pounce. I have no doubt that 1-1/4 miles is well within his scope. His sire, Maria’s Mon, also sired 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and the mare Wait A While, a multiple G1 turf winner going long who, like Super Saver, is out of an A.P. Indy mare. Super Saver’s dam Supercharger is related to many of the great horses owned and bred by the regal Phipps stable. I don’t feel that Super Saver will win the Kentucky Derby, but he is a threat to make his presence felt at the wire.

I took 4/All and All/4 Exactas for this race.

Good Luck!


The Popcorn Factory

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