Friday Night MLB Pick

For Friday, I like the over 9.5 runs (-115) in the Indians vs Reds game.

The Tribe start Aaron Laffey. He is only 0-1 with a 5.61 ERA and a .294 BAA. In 25.2 innings, he has allowed 30 hits and 13 walks with only 11 strikeouts. On the road this year his ERA is 6.92 and his BAA is .286. Against the Reds this year he is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA and a .400 BAA. Against the Reds from 2007-2009 he was 0-2 with a 9.95 ERA and a .370 BAA. At Great American for his career he is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA. His career record against Cincy is 0-3 with an 11.05 ERA. The Reds, who bat .272 against lefties will get to Laffey tonight, and after that, they'll crush the Indians bullpen with its 5.64 road ERA.

Meanwhile, the Reds go with Aaron Harang. For the year he is 5-7 with a 5.17 ERA and a .294 BAA. At home his ERA is 4.91 and his BAA is .271. For the month of June he is 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA, but in 21.1 innings this month, he has allowed 30 men on base. At night this year his ERA is 5.76 and his BAA is .318. To put that into perspective, his BAA in day games this year is only .221. He is 3-2 for his career against the Tribe, but from 2007-2009 he was 0-2 against them with a 4.18 ERA and a .306 BAA. After we get done with Harang, we'll see the Reds bullpen with its 5.23 ERA.

Good Luck!

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Wednesday Baseball Pick

The over came in last night, and I have another over for the Reds v Dodgers game.

The Reds start rookie Mike Leake. He is 5-0 on the year with a 2.68 ERA. Very nice numbers. In his last 4 outings though, he allowed 35 hits and 8 walks in 24.2 innings. For the month of June he is 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA, but his BAA is .367. In 11.1 innings this month, he allowed 18 hits and 4 walks. Against the Dodgers this year he is 1-0, but with a 6.43 ERA and a .286 BAA. After Leake is gone, we get to see the Reds bullpen with its home ERA of 5.03.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers start lefty Clayton Kershaw. He is 6-3 on the year with a 3.13 ERA and a .202 BAA. He is 5th in the NL in strikeouts. He happens to be first in the NL in walks with 44. That's good, because the Reds are a fairly patient team at the plate (they are 11th in MLB in walks this year). For the month of June he is 1-0 but with a 3.95 ERA.

The Reds bat an MLB-best .287 against lefties. The Dodgers are a solid .274 against righties. Over the past 7 days, the Dodgers are batting .280, while the Reds are batting .299.

These teams have met 4 times this year (including last night), all 4 have gone over the total. The Dodgers are 4-1 to the over in their last 5, while the Reds have gone over the total in 6 straight games. Check this one out. When the total is set between 8 and 8.5, the Dodgers are 5-1 to the over on the road, while the Reds are 14-5 to the over at home.

Taking the Over 8 (-120) today.

Good Luck!