Wednesday Baseball Play!

I like the over 9 (-110) runs in the Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins game.

The Tigers start rookie lefty Andrew Oliver. This will be only his second major league start. He took the loss in his debut against the Braves 5 days ago, so he is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. But before that he was in Double AA Erie, where he wasn't all that special. There he was 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA and a .253 BAA. The Twins are batting a decent .274 over the past 7 days and they bat a respectable .268 against lefties.

Meanwhile, the Twins start Kevin Slowey. He is 7-5 on the year but with a 4.79 ERA and a .297 BAA. At home he is 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA. Over his last 3 starts he has been getting slammed. For his last 3, he has lasted only 12.1 innings, allowing 22 hits, 5 walks and 17 earned runs, for an ERA of 12.75. For the entire month of June he is 1-2 with a 6.15 ERA and a .297 BAA. In day games this year he is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and a BAA of .350. Against the Tigers this year he is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA and a .304 BAA. Including this year, he is 4-0 for his career against the Tigers. But, his career ERA against the Tigers is 5.93. In 30.1 career innings against the Tigers, he has allowed 52 men to reach base. Several of the Tigers, including Cabrera, Damon, Guillen and Santiago have all had tremendous success against Slowey in their careers.

Good Luck!

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Tuesday Baseball Pick!

For Tuesday, I like the over 9.5 (+100)in the Tampa Rays vs Boston Red Sox game.

The Rays start James Shields. He is 6-7 on the year with a 4.55 ERA and a .279 BAA. On the road he is 5-3 with a 3.49 ERA, but a BAA of .286. For the month of June he is 1-4 with a 7.40 ERA and a .300 BAA. Against Boston this year he is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA. He is 1-0 at Fenway this year, but with a 5.40 ERA and a .310 BAA. From 2007-2009 he was 3-6 against the Sox with a 5.17 ERA. But before he won at Fenway this year, for his career at Fenway he was 0-6 with an 8.04 ERA and a .344 BAA. In fact, including this year, Shields has pitched 34.2 innings at Fenway Park. In those 34.2 innings, he has allowed 63 men to reach base. The Sox, who bat .280 against righties and who bat .289 at home, will get some offense tonight.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox go with John Lackey. On the year he is 8-3 with a 4.69 ERA. However, his WHIP is 1.57 and his BAA is .298. In his last 2 starts he allowed 20 men on base in 12.2 innings. For the month of June he is 3-0 with a 4.41 ERA, but with a .316 BAA. At home this year he is 6-1, but again with a 5.03 ERA and a .299 BAA. For his career against the Rays he is 10-3, but this year he is 1-1 against them with an ERA of 9.31 and a BAA of .395. In 9.2 innings pitched against the Rays this year, he has allowed 22 men to reach base.

Liking the Over tonight.

Monday evening Baseball Pick June 28th

For Monday, I like the over 9.5 (-105)in the Phillies vs Reds game.

The Phillies start right hander Kyle Kendrick. The Reds bat an NL-best .274 against right handed pitching. Kendrick is 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA and a .270 BAA. Kendrick is 3-0 for his career against the Reds, but that is with a 6.61 ERA and a .297 BAA. In his one career start at Great American he got the win, but with a 7.20 ERA and a .381 BAA. The Reds, who bat an NL-best .287 at home, will get to Kendrick tonight.

Meanwhile, the Reds start Johnny Cueto. He is 7-2 on the year with a 3.97 ERA and a .256 BAA. At home this year he is 3-1 but with a 4.19 ERA and a .265 BAA. For the month of June he is 2-1 but with a 5.46 ERA and a .303 BAA. For his career against the Phillies he is 0-2 with a ERA of 15.26 and a .353 BAA. Over the past 7 days the Phils are batting a very nice .289. After they get to Cueto, we'll see the Reds bullpen with its 4.98 ERA.

The Reds are 24-14 to the over at home this year, while the Phils have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5.

Good Luck!

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Friday Night MLB Pick

For Friday, I like the over 9.5 runs (-115) in the Indians vs Reds game.

The Tribe start Aaron Laffey. He is only 0-1 with a 5.61 ERA and a .294 BAA. In 25.2 innings, he has allowed 30 hits and 13 walks with only 11 strikeouts. On the road this year his ERA is 6.92 and his BAA is .286. Against the Reds this year he is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA and a .400 BAA. Against the Reds from 2007-2009 he was 0-2 with a 9.95 ERA and a .370 BAA. At Great American for his career he is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA. His career record against Cincy is 0-3 with an 11.05 ERA. The Reds, who bat .272 against lefties will get to Laffey tonight, and after that, they'll crush the Indians bullpen with its 5.64 road ERA.

Meanwhile, the Reds go with Aaron Harang. For the year he is 5-7 with a 5.17 ERA and a .294 BAA. At home his ERA is 4.91 and his BAA is .271. For the month of June he is 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA, but in 21.1 innings this month, he has allowed 30 men on base. At night this year his ERA is 5.76 and his BAA is .318. To put that into perspective, his BAA in day games this year is only .221. He is 3-2 for his career against the Tribe, but from 2007-2009 he was 0-2 against them with a 4.18 ERA and a .306 BAA. After we get done with Harang, we'll see the Reds bullpen with its 5.23 ERA.

Good Luck!

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Thursday Night Baseball Pick!

I like the Texas Rangers -1.5 (-120) vs the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Last night Pittsburgh pitcher Paul Maholm went into Arlington with some good numbers recently and he had been one of the few bright spots of this dogged team. In the end though, the Texas mojo was too much and Pittsburgh was annihilated 13-3. Pittsburgh's pitcher tonight Karstens also has been steady of late, but this isn't about numbers, it's about situation. Texas is tearing the cover off the ball and getting quality starting pitching. Now they play a team one more time that they have outscored 19-6 in the first two games. The Pirates just can't keep up with most teams and won't again tonight vs this Texas team that is on fire.

Good Luck!

Saturday Baseball Pick!

For Saturday, I like the Colorado Rockies (-120) to the Brewers.

The Rockies start lefty Jeff Francis. He is 2-2 on the year with a 3.29 ERA. At home this year his ERA is 3.42 and his BAA is .247. While the Brewers bat a decent .265 against lefties, lately they can't hit their way out of a paper bag, batting only .225 over the past 7 days. For the entire month of June, they are batting only .227 (2nd worst in all of baseball). Francis should hold his own against the weak Brewers team, and then the Rockies bullpen with its solid 3.15 home ERA will take over.

Meanwhile, the Brewers start Yovani Gallardo. He is 6-3 on the year with a 2.66 ERA and a .223 BAA. but he is 2nd in the NL in walks with 43. That works for us here, as the Rockies have the 5th most walks in the NL this season. Against the Rockies this year he is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a .269 BAA. For his career against the Rockies he is 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA. He has made only 1 start in his career at Coors Field where in 2.2 innings pitched at Coors, he allowed 12 hits and 3 walks, for an ERA of 37.13 and a BAA of .632 . The Rockies bat a solid .283 at home, and after they get to Gallardo, we'll see the Brewers bullpen with its ERA of 5.62. The 7 times these two teams have met at Coors Field over the past 3 years, and including last night, the Rockies are 6-1.

Good Luck!

Wednesday Baseball Pick

The over came in last night, and I have another over for the Reds v Dodgers game.

The Reds start rookie Mike Leake. He is 5-0 on the year with a 2.68 ERA. Very nice numbers. In his last 4 outings though, he allowed 35 hits and 8 walks in 24.2 innings. For the month of June he is 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA, but his BAA is .367. In 11.1 innings this month, he allowed 18 hits and 4 walks. Against the Dodgers this year he is 1-0, but with a 6.43 ERA and a .286 BAA. After Leake is gone, we get to see the Reds bullpen with its home ERA of 5.03.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers start lefty Clayton Kershaw. He is 6-3 on the year with a 3.13 ERA and a .202 BAA. He is 5th in the NL in strikeouts. He happens to be first in the NL in walks with 44. That's good, because the Reds are a fairly patient team at the plate (they are 11th in MLB in walks this year). For the month of June he is 1-0 but with a 3.95 ERA.

The Reds bat an MLB-best .287 against lefties. The Dodgers are a solid .274 against righties. Over the past 7 days, the Dodgers are batting .280, while the Reds are batting .299.

These teams have met 4 times this year (including last night), all 4 have gone over the total. The Dodgers are 4-1 to the over in their last 5, while the Reds have gone over the total in 6 straight games. Check this one out. When the total is set between 8 and 8.5, the Dodgers are 5-1 to the over on the road, while the Reds are 14-5 to the over at home.

Taking the Over 8 (-120) today.

Good Luck!

Tuesday Baseball Pick!

Today, I like the Over 9.5 in the Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers game.

The Nationalss start lefty John Lannan. The Tigers bat a decent .265 against lefties, and they are batting .275 over the past 7 days. Lannan is 2-3 on the year with a 5.00 ERA and a .305 BAA. In his last 3 starts, he allowed 30 men on base in 18 innings. For the month of June his ERA is 4.91 and his BAA is .346. This month he has allowed 18 hits in 11 innings, with 5 walks and only 4 strikeouts. On the road this year his ERA is 4.73 and his BAA is .288.

Meanwhile, the Tigers start Max Scherzer. On the year he is 2-6 with a 6.30 ERA and a .306 BAA. For the month of June he is 0-2 with an ERA of 5.84 and a .326 BAA. At home this year (and for his entire career at Comerica) he is 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA and a .338 BAA. At night this year he is a miserable 0-3 with an 8.71 ERA and a BAA of .320. For his career against the Nats his ERA is 5.87. This one's going over.

Good Luck!

Friday Baseball Pick!

Today, I like the New York Yankees (-125) vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.

Listed Pitchers are AJ Burnett and Brett Cecil. The Yankees in this matchup at this price in this spot is a must buy in my assessment. They are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings and face a Toronto team that while they are hitting alot of extra base hits and homeruns when they do make contact, they still aren't consistent at making contact and their team average is a sore spot for this squad. AJ Burnett has only given up 2 homeruns in his last 6 starts and is pitching well right now for the Yanks. He's going to get support from this vaunted Yanks' lineup who have simply feasted on Brett Cecil in the two times they have faced him. In only 8 innings total in the two starts, Cecil was touched up for 10 runs and 16 hits, walking 8 and allowing 3 homeruns. He also has a 6.19 ERA at home this year. Toronto's bullpen woes of late also come into play considering the strong possibility that Cecil gets knocked out early and that favors the Yanks as well.

Good Luck!

Thursday Afternoon Baseball Pick

Rained out yesterday.

Today, I like the Washington Nationals (-122)

The Nats start righty J.D. Martin. The Astros bat a NL-worst .229 against right handed pitchers. The Astros also bat a NL-worst .227 during day games. Martin has made only 1 start this season. He lost to the Padres but his ERA is only 1.50 and his BAA is .174.

Meanwhile, the Astros start Brian Moehler. He is 0-2 with a 7.29 ERA and a .364 BAA. As a starter this year his ERA is 26.97.

I'll take my chances with Washington today.

Good Luck!

Wednesday Baseball Pick

For Wednesday, I like the Chicago Cubs -140 vs the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates start lefty Zach Duke. He is 3-5 on the year with a 5.09 ERA and a .322 BAA. At home this year he is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA, but a BAA of .313. For the month of May he went 35.2 innings, allowing 52 hits and 9 walks. Against the Cubs last year he was 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA and a .333 BAA. He is 4-8 for his entire career against the Cubs, since 2007 he is 0-7 against them with a 5.24 ERA and a .336 BAA.

Meanwhile, the Cubs start Carlos Zambrano. Over his last 5 appearances, he went a total of 4.1 innings. In those 4.1 innings he allowed 0 earned runs, with only 1 hit and 1 walk. The Pirates bat a lousy .232 against righties this year (2nd worst in the NL), and I think they are going to faced a humbled Zambrano tonight as he makes his return to the rotation.

Good Luck!

Tuesday Baseball Pick!

Tonight, I like the Milwaukee Brewers vs Florida Marlins OVER 9 -114.

Listed Pitchers are Dave Bush and Ricky Nolasco. Neither of these guys are dealing at all right now and are very hittable pitchers currently. Combined they have given up 36 hits and 28 runs in 26 innings pitched in their last 6 starts combined. Bush as a horrible ERA of 7.94 in his last 3 starts allowing an average against in those starts of 7.3 runs. Nolasco isn't much better with a 7.63 ERA and allowing 8 runs per in his last 3 starts. Bush in his last 7 starts is 0-5 with a 6.55 ERA to go a step further, and he is also only 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in 4 trips to Miami. Nolasco matches his ugliness with a 11.81 ERA in his 3 home starts vs Milwaukee and overall at home he has a 6.23 ERA, so it doesn't matter who he's facing, he's been poor at home. Florida busted out for some runs yesterday in a big way and should get theirs again today facing Bush and the 2nd worst bullpen ERA in the majors, as the Brewcrew set of relievers have been horrible. Milwaukee is hitting over .270 away from home and should get to Nolasco here as everyone has and both these teams should register runs aplenty today.

Good Luck!